EUR/USD
EUR/USD's anticipated strong rebound finally occurred last week after making a marginal low at 1.1825. Friday's volatile trading indicates some indecisiveness that could bring further sideway trading into early next week. However, we'd still expect the rebound to go further towards mentioned cluster resistance of 1.2127/32 (61.8% retracement of 1.2322 to 1.1825 at 1.2132 and 161.8% projection of 1.1825 to 1.1972 from 1.1889 at 1.2127) as long as pull back was contained above 1.1972 resistance turned support and the intraday rising trend line (now at 1.1971).

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we're treating the current rise from 1.1825 as part of consolidation/correction to the decline from 1.2322 and still favor another fall to retest 1.1639 low after this rebound. Hence, as this rally goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and any signs of reversal. Ideally, we should see loss of momentum as EUR/USD approaches 1.1927/32 cluster resistance and followed by breaking of the intraday trend line before or after touching of this cluster resistance.

However, though distant for the moment, a firm break above falling trend line from 1.2587 to 1.2322 (now at 1.2247) will have completed a wide range head and shoulder bottom on bullish convergence condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bullish at least for 1.2587 resistance again. And we'll have a more serious attention to this case is EUR/USD can break above 1.1927/32 strongly.

GBP/USD
Cable's volatility has given us some hard time last week even though our view of 'correction not yet finished view' was basically correct. Initial dip to as low as 1.7376 last week and rebounded strongly from there. However, such rebound was not followed sustained buying interest and cable then turned into volatile sideway trading since then. It's actually very difficult to make money in such market.

Nevertheless, we'd still expect cable to stair-step high this week to finish the corrective rise from 1.7281. Retreat should be contained by intraday rising trend line (from 1.7376 to 1.7435, now at 1.7480). Upside target will be cluster projection target of 1.7650/52 (100% projection of 1.7281 to 1.7555 from 1.7376 at 1.7650 and 100% projection of 1.7376 to 1.7593 from 1.7435 at 1.7652).

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another fall to retest 1.7047 low after the current rebound as long as this rebound is limited by below 61.8% retracement of 1.7935 to 1.7281 at 1.7685. Hence, as the final corrective rise goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of the it and signs of reversal that could spark off another fall. Ideally, we should see loss of upside momentum as this rally goes as it approaches 1.7650/52. A drop below the mentioned intraday rising trend line will be the first signal of completion of the whole rally from 1.7281. Confirmed by a strong break below 1.7376 support, retest of 1.7281 low should follow.

However, though distant at this moment, break of medium term falling trend line (from 1.8498 to 1.7395, now at 1.7783) will turn medium term outlook bullish and indicates further strength should be seen at least towards 1.7935 high first. We'll start to look seriously into this case in case cable can break firmly above 1.7685 fibo resistance.

USD/CHF
Strength in USD/CHF early last week was making our view shaky by in the end, USD/CHF reversed after marginally breaking through mentioned resistance at 1.3232 and reached 1.3238. Sell off finally occurred from there. At this point further weakness is to be seen next week as long as USD/CHF remains below intraday falling trend line (now at 1.3085). Next downside target will be at cluster support at 1.2900 (with 50% retracement of 1.2556 to 1.3238 at 1.2897).

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains in the positive zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another rise to retest 1.3083 high low after the current correction. Hence, as this decline goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and signs of reversal. Ideally, we should be seeing loss of downside momentum as USD/CHF approaches 1.2900 and downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.2556 to 1.3238 at 1.2817 and bring strong rebound. Breaking of the mentioned intraday trend line will be the first sign of completion of the fall from 1.3238.

However, though distant for the moment, a firm break below rising trend line from 1.2239 to 1.2556 (now at 1.2642) will have completed a wide range head and shoulder top on bearish convergence condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bearish at least for 1.2239 low again. We'll take a serious look at this case in case of a strong break below 1.2817 fib support.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY's fall initially last week on broad based strength in japanese yen but downside was contained above long term rising trend line (from 104.20 to 108.75). Subsequent consolidation recovery indicates a short term low was formed at 115.45 with 4 hours MACD turned above signal line. Hence bias was mildly shifted to upside for retest of 117.14 resistance.

However, as discussed before, a firm break above 117.14 is needed to confirm the fall from 118.98 has completed and bring strong rebound for 119.37 high. Otherwise, further weakness cannot be ruled out after mild recovery.

On the downside, a firm break below mentioned trend line (now at 115.51) will suggest that our original view that fall from 119.37 is merely a correction to the rebound from 113.41 is likely wrong. And USD/JPY could have already resumed the whole fall from 121.38. In such case, further decline to next cluster support of 114.69/71 (78.6% retracement of 113.41 to 119.37 at 114.69 and 161.8% projection of 119.37 to 116.73 from 118.98 at 114.71) should follow first.