EUR/USD
EUR/USD's sustained trading this week above previous mentioned falling channel confirms that the fall from 1.2322 has completed at 1.1847. The subsequent price actions from 1.1847 is being treated as consolidation/correction to this fall. Originally, we have favored a strong rebound case but EUR/USD lacked follow through buying after reaching 1.1973 and turned sideway instead. At this point, the consolidation is still relatively "shallow". Also, daily MACD has turned flat. We'd expect such consolidation from 1.1847 to go further before resuming the decline from 1.2322.

Having said that, further consolidation action should be seen next week which started with initial downside bias. Again, since we're treating consolidation pattern from 1.1847 as in progress, downside should be contained above 138.2% retracement of 1.1847 to 1.1973 at 1.1799 and bring strong rebound to complete the whole consolidation pattern. Cluster support of 1.1776 (with 78.6% of 1.1639 to 1.2322 at 1.1785) should not be in danger. A firm break below 1.1776 will indicate the above view is wrong and the situation will be assessed later.

On the upside, a strong break above 1.1914 will argue that the final rebound has already started for 1.1973 resistance first and then 1.2024 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement at of 1.2322 to 1.1847 1.2028).

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another fall to retest 1.1639 low after the final rebound Hence, as the rebound goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and any (or lack of signs) of reversal. However, though distant for the moment, a firm break above falling trend line from 1.2587 to 1.2322 will have completed a wide range head and shoulder bottom on bullish convergence condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bullish at least for 1.2587 resistance again.

GBP/USD
Last week's push above 1.7488 resistance confirmed that the fall from 1.7935 has ended at 1.7281 already and price action since then is treated as consolidation/correction to such fall. Friday's drop below 1.7422 support has turned short term bias to the downside. for testing the lower channel line (now at 1.7415) and a break below there will confirm the completion of the rebound from 1.7281 and bring retest of this low. However, failure to break below the lower channel line and above 1.7491 resistance again will indicate cable should still 'crawl' upside towards 1.7575 resistance.

Also, since daily MACD has already turned above signal line, suggesting further consolidation will take place, we'll now assume the rebound from 1.7281 a rising leg of the whole consolidation pattern to be unfolded. Hence, even in case of a retest of 1.7281, we'd expect a marginal break only and then bring a final rising leg to complete the consolidation.

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another fall to retest 1.7047 low after the current rebound as long as this rebound is limited well below 61.8% retracement of 1.7935 to 1.7281 at 1.7685. Hence, as the final rebound goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of the it and signs of reversal that could spark off another fall.

USD/CHF
Last week's sustained trading below the lower channel line has confirmed rally from 1.2556 has completed at 1.3173 already and subsequent price action is being treated as consolidation/correction the such rally. Originally, we expected a deeper correction to occur, however, retreat from 1.3173 was contained by mentioned cluster support of 1.3028 (with 23.6% retracement of 1.2556 to 1.3173 at 1.3027) only and bring strong rebound.

Initial bias for next week will be on the upside. However, since daily MACD has turned flat, suggesting further consolidation should take place, we'll treat the current rebound from 1.3019 as part of the consolidation pattern that started from 1.3173 only. Having said that, even though a marginal break above 1.3196 resistance cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 138.2% retracement of 1.3173 top 1.3019 at 1.3232 and bring a deep retreat to complete the consolidation pattern. However, a strong break above 1.323 will indicate this view is wrong and the situation will be assessed later.

Below 1.3100 minor support will suggest the final corrective fall has started and should bring retest of 1.3028 support again. Break will further correct towards support zone between 1.2925 and 38.2% retracement at 1.2937).

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the positive zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another rise to retest 1.3083 high low after the current correction as long as this correction is contained well above 1.2738 support. Hence, as the final decline goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and signs (or lack of signs) of reversal. However, though distant for the moment, a firm break below rising trend line from 1.2239 to 1.2556 will have completed a wide range head and shoulder top on bearish convergence condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bearish at least for 1.2239 support again.

USD/JPY
As discussed before, rebound from 116.73 last week was short-lived and USD/JPY turned into another steep fall after reaching 118.98 and dropped deep to retest 116.68 support as expected. Initial support is now provided by mentioned fibo support of 50% retracement of 113.41 to 119.37 at 116.39 and contained downside at 116.41 only.

Ideally, we'd like to see a break above 117.21 early next week that at least make 116.41 a temporary low. Attention will be paid to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 117.76) in such case and a firm break above there will indicate the consolidation pattern from 119.37 has possibly finished and bring retest of 119.37 high first.

However, risk of another fall remains as long as USD/JPY remains below the 4 hours 55 EMA and break of 116.39 will at least suggest further short term weakness is to be seen and in that case, further decline towards long term rising trend line (from 104.20 to 108.75, now at 115.23). Such trend line should not be in danger if our broader view of another rally to rest 121.38 high is correct.