EUR/USD
As discussed throughout the week, EUR/USD's downside momentum has been seen diminishing as displayed in bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Friday's sharp rebound, though volatile, has pushed EUR/USD through minor resistance at 1.1913, completing a falling wedge formation and have the upper channel line broken. These suggest the whole decline form 1.2322 has already completed at 1.1847 already.

Now a firm break above cluster resistance of 1.1953 (with 23.6% retracement of 1.2322 to 1.1847 at 1.1959) will confirm a sizeable rebound has started which should target next cluster resistance of 1.2024 (38.2% retracement at 1.2028) first.

At this point, it will take a surprising drop below 1.1857 to delay the above view and bring another fall. But still, even in such case, we'd still expect such fall is part of a larger volailte stair-step downward falling wedge formation. And downside should still be contained above cluster support of 1.1776 cluster support (with 78.6% of 1.1639 to 1.2322 at 1.1785). And it's a matter that the rebound would happen later in such case.

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another fall to retest 1.1639 low after the current rebound as long as this rebound is limited well below 1.2188 resistance. Hence, as the rebound goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and any (or lack of signs) of reversal. However, though distant for the moment, a firm break above falling trend line from 1.2587 to 1.2322 will have completed a wide range head and shoulder bottom on bullish convergance condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bullish at least for 1.2587 resistance again.

GBP/USD
Cable's remains the trickier one so far. But similar to others, one thing for sure is the diminishing of downside momentum as displayed in bullish convergence in 4 hours MACD and RSI. But whether a low is made already is not clear at this point and hence our attention remains on 1.7488 resistance. A firm break above 1.7488 is needed to confirm the fall from 1.7935 has completed and rebound to 1.7575 resistance should be followed in such case. Otherwise, another fall couldn't be ruled out as long as cable remains below 1.7488. But still, even in such case, downside should be contained by 78.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.7935 at 1.7237 and bring strong rebound.

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the negative zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another fall to retest 1.7047 low after the current rebound as long as this rebound is limited well below 61.8% retracement of 1.7935 to 1.7281 at 1.7685. Hence, as the rebound goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of the it and signs of reversal that could spark off another fall.

USD/CHF
Similar to EUR/USD, loss of upside momentum is apparent throughout the week as displayed in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Friday's sharp fall has poissble ended a rising wedge formation, which in turn completed the whole rally from 1.2556. Hence we'd expect the fall from 1.3173 to continue next week for cluster support at 1.3028 (with 23.6% retracement of 1.2556 to 1.3173 at 1.3027) and break below this level will confirm the correction to whole rally from 1.2556 has started for support zone between 1.2925 and 38.2% retracement at 1.2937 first).

At this point, it will take a surprise rebound to above 1.3173 to delay this case and bring a final rally first. But still such rally should fail after testing 1.3196 resistance and bring the mentioned correction. It's just a matter of delaying the fall.

From a bigger picture, as daily MACD remains on the positive zone and 55 day EMA essentially flat, we'll favor another rise to retest 1.3083 high low after the current correction as long as this correction is contained well above 1.2738 support. Hence, as the decline goes, we'll pay close attention to nature of it and signs (or lack of signs) of reversal. However, though distant for the moment, a firm break below rising trend line from 1.2239 to 1.2556 will have completed a wide range head and shoulder top on bearish convergance condition which will reverse medium term outlook to bearish at least for 1.2239 support again.

USD/JPY
Wide range consolidation went on last week. USD/JPY's fall from 119.37 was contained above 116.68 support as expected. However, rebound to 118.85 was giving us no indication on whether the consolidation has finished as such rebound was limited by 100% projection target and broke below 118.11 support after such rebound.

While several scenarios are possible, daily MACD's drop below signal line is is favoring some cases. Firstly, we'll assume consolidative trading to continue as long as any rally is limited below 78.6% retracement of 121.38 to 113.41 at 119.67. Hence, bullishness is confirmed only by strong break above this level and bring retest of 121.38 high. Otherwise, any rally should be short lived and followed by another fall. Secondly, as consolidation goes, we'd expect another fall to retest 116.68 support again but downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 113.41 to 119.37 at 116.39.

Hence, from trading point of view, buying/selling on the edge of this range on reversal signal could be considered but anything in between would be choppy, which is, perhaps fun to watch but no fun to trade.

From a bigger picture, we're still expecting the rally from 113.41 to go further to retest 121.38 after the current consolidation as long as any pull back is contained by 116.39 fibo support. Break of this level will signficant increase the chance that the fall from 121.38 will resume and such scenario will be assessed later.