EURUSD-EUR put in a strong three-day performance breaking 1.3068/52 levels, its Dec 18’06 low/50 ema and testing its Jun’06 high/.618 Ret/psychological level at 1.3000/1.2981 to close the week at 1.3003 on Friday, the lowest price since Nov 24’06.This break lower has not only confirmed a double top price pattern putting the price objective for the pattern at 1.2812 but has put further pressure on the 1.2981/01 levels, representing its Jun’06/Nov 10’06 highs.
Immediate downside target is seen at its Jun’06 high/.618 Ret/psychological level at 1.3000/1.2981 with a break triggering losses towards 1.2901/24, its Nov 10’06 high/.50 Ret (1.2484-1.3365 rally) followed by 1.2830/24, its Sept 22’06 high/.618 Ret. A clearance of here puts the next target at its Oct 03’06/Nov 17’06 highs at 1.2765/61.On the other hand, the convergence of its double top breakdown point, 50 ema and Dec 18’06 low at 1.3052/68 should contain any strength ahead of further losses but if a break materializes, it could clear the way for further gains aiming at its Dec 11’06 low/April’05 high at 1.3126/30and its Dec 20’06 low/broken rising trendline/.786 Ret(1.3667-1.1640 decline) at 1.3221/45 before1.3292/95 levels, its Dec 12’06/Jan 02’07 highs with a break opening the pathway for a retest of its Dec’06 high at 1.3365.On the whole,EUR remains vulnerable to further downside losses supported by its weekly studies which are negative and pointing to the downside.
Support
Comments
1.3000/1.2981
Psycho level/Jun’06 high
1.2901
Nov’10’06 high
1.2830/24
Sept 22’06 high/.618 Ret
1.2761
Nov 17’06 low
Resistance
Comments
1.3052/68
50 ema and Dec 18’06 low
1.3126/30
April’05 high/Dec 11’06
1.3231/45
.786 Ret(1.3667-1.1640)/ Dec 20’06 low
1.3292
Dec 12’06 high
GBP Pushes Through 19460/29 Levels
GBPUSD-Following a sell off that began on Wednesday, GBP ended the week by breaking below its short-term range and the 19460/10 levels, its 50 ema/Dec 18’06 low/range breakdown point at 1.9410/60 to close the week at 1.9300.With price action trending lower as well as its weekly momentum, further downside price losses is expected with the first downside target coming in at its rising trendline currently at 1.9272 followed by its April’05 high/Nov 10’06 high at 1.9218/1.9177.On a loss of this level, focus will be shifted to its .618 Ret (1.8522-1.9848 rally)/psychological level at1.9027/00 enroute to its Nov 17’06 low at 1.8834. While its daily studies are negative to oversold, its weekly studies are heading lower suggesting further downside price losses. On the upside, its .382 Ret/Mar’05 high at 1.9327/37 should come in as the first resistance on any weakness ahead of its 50 ema/Dec 18’06 low/range breakdown point at 1.9410/60.Further upside gains if seen will target its Dec’04 high at 1.9552 with a break pushing the pair towards its Dec 13&20’06/Jan 03’07 highs at 1.9727/50 ahead of its 14-year high at 1.9848 set in early Dec’06.On the whole, having lost key support levels,GBP remains vulnerable to the downside.
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