EURUSD-EUR shot to a high of 1.3200 on Thursday but gave back a large part of that gain to close the day at 1.3146, slightly higher than Wednesday close. Long upper shadows candles are clearly seen on the price chart suggesting that EUR is rejecting higher-level prices. As long as 1.3231/92 remains intact, the pair should see downside pressure with the immediate target seen at 1.3136/26,its ST rising trendline/April’05 high/Dec 11’06 low followed by its 50 ema/.38 Ret (1.2761-1.3365 rally) at 1.3041/37 ahead of its Jun’06 high/psychological level at 1.3000/1.2981.A break of here if seen puts the next target at its Nov 10’06/Aug’06 highs at 1.2901/39.Its weekly studies supports this view. The first technical resistance on the upside comes in at 1.3231/92 levels, its .786 Ret/Dec 12’06 where a clearance will pave the way for further upside gains towards its year-to-date/20-month highs at 1.3365.A sustained violation of this level aims at 1.3405 level, its range breakout price objectivewith a break opening the door for a challenge on its Mar’05 high at 1.3482.Beyond here comes another upside resistance at 1.3667, its Dec’04 high.Overall,holding above 1.3000/1.2981 levels supports the pair’s longer term uptrend.
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Support
Comments
1.3130/36
April’05 high/Dec 11’06/Nov 27’06 lows
1.3059
MT rising trendline
1.3000/1.2981
Psycho level/Jun’06 high
1.2901/39
Nov 10’06 high/Aug’06 high
Resistance
Comments
1.3219/31
Nov 28’06 high/.786 Ret(1.3667-1.1640)
1.3365
Dec’06 high
1.3405
Broader range breakout price target
1.3482
April’05 high
GBP Follows Through
GBPUSD-GBP traded high on Thursday closing at 1.9626.The pair continues to trade within its short term trading range(red horizontal lines) and below1.9727/48,its ST range top/Dec 20’06 high. A decisive break and close above this zone is needed to trigger further upside gains targeting its 14-year high at 1.9848 with a scope for price extension towards its range breakout price target/psychological resistance at /1.9990/2.000.On a loss of this level, focus will then be shifted to its 1991/1992 highs at 2.0045/2.0110.Daily momentum signals are mixed. On the downside, 1.9552, its Dec’04 high comes in as its initial target with a break putting the next support level at 1.9465/29, its Dec 08’06 low/.382 Ret/Nov 29’06 low. Below here could see the pair pushing towards its Mar’06 high/Nov 27’06 low at 1.9327/06 enroute to a stronger support zone at 1.9218/1.9177,its April’05/Nov 10’06 highs. On the whole, GBP needs to break and close above 1.9848 level to convince the market that it is ready to run at its psychologically important level at 2.000.
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