EUR Continues To Hold Above its .50 Ret/ST Rising Trendline
EURUSD-After a three-day of sell off culminating in a low of 1.3104 on Friday,EUR pushed to a low of 1.3094 Tuesday closing below its .38 Ret/ST rising trendline in place since late Oct’06.It has pushed back above that rising trendline in early morning trading today as at the time of this analysis. A daily close above here will mark the second time the ST rising trendline has held as support with the first occurring in Dec 18’06.The next target on a sustained close above its rising trendline/April’05 high at 1.3122/26 comes in at 1.3231/92 levels, its .786 Ret/Dec 12’06.A successful violation of this zone is required to pave the way for the pair to run at its year-to-date/20-month highs at 1.3365where a break if seen targets 1.3405 level, its range breakout price objective ahead of its Mar’05 high at 1.3482.Beyond here puts its Dec’04 high at 1.3667 as the next technical resistance. On the other hand, if the pair is seen below its ST rising trendline then price losses towards 1.3041/37, its 50 ema/.38 Ret (1.2761-1.3365 rally) could seen with a break aiming at its Jun’06 high/psychological level at 1.3000/1.2981.A failure of this zone is not expected but if does, further downside pressure towards its Nov 10’06 high/Aug’06 high could follow. Its daily and weekly studies are pointing to the downside supporting this view. On the whole, as long as 1.3231/92 levels remain unbroken,pressures to the downside cannot be ruled out.
Support
Comments
1.3130/1.3086
April’05 high/Dec 08’06/Nov 27’06 lows
1.3059
MT rising trendline
1.3000/1.2981
Psycho level/Jun’06 high
1.2901/39
Nov 10’06 high/Aug’06 high
Resistance
Comments
1.3219/31
Nov 28’06 high/.786 Ret(1.3667-1.1640)
1.3365
Dec’06 high
1.3405
Broader range breakout price target
1.3482
April’05 high
GBP Hesitates Ahead Of 1.9462/29 Levels
GBPUSD-GBP remains stuck within its short-term range but shot to the upside in early morning trading today after testing a low of 1.9511 on Tuesday. It had collapsed to a low of 1.9556 at the end of last week after failing to push above 1.9727/48 levels. With a failure ahead of 1.9462/29, its bottom of the range/Dec 18’06 low shaping up, a move back to the top the range/Dec 13 & 20’06 highs at 1.9722/48 should follow if a daily close is seen. In such a case, its 14-year high at 1.9848 printed in Dec 01’06 comes into focus with a decisive penetration opening the door for upside gains towards its range breakout price target/psychological resistance at /1.9990/2.000 ahead of its 1991/1992 highs at 2.0045/2.0110.On the downside, its Dec’04 high at 1.9552 comes in as the immediate target with a break exposing its Dec 08’06 low/.382 Ret/Nov 29’06 low at 1.9465/29.Below here targets its Mar’06 high/Nov 27’06 low at 1.9327/06 followed byits April’05/Nov 10’06 highs at 1.9218/1.9177.In addition, the daily stochastics indicator remains negative as it has just made a bearish crossover. Overall, GBP’s long-term uptrend remains constructive as long as it maintains above 1.9218/1.9177 zone.
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