USD USD strengthened last Friday. EUR/USD fell to 1.3160, and GBP/USD fell to 1.9500. Oct Non-farm payroll rose 132k which supported the dollar. Later the unemployment rate rose back from 4.4% to 4.5% and the dollar fell again. In the late trading hours, US Treasury minister Paulson supported the strong dollar and the dollar strengthened since then. I believe that the major currencies against the dollar would be at the correction mode and investors should wait for a better position to short the dollar again.
EUR EUR/USD fell sharply last Friday to 1.3160 level. Last Friday German Oct trade surplus rose from 15billion to 17.3billion. The current account surplus also rose from 9.4billion to 11.6billion which supported the Euro in the short term. EUR/JPY rose to 154.03 and EUR/CAD also rose to 1.53 level. Last Thursday the ECB raised rate by 0.25% and the central bank revised down the inflation expectation for 2006 and 2007. The market believed that the Euro interest rate would hit the peak next year and the 10yr European government bond yield fell down to reflect the inflation expectation. EUR/USD support is at 1.2980 and the resistance is at 1.3350.
GBP Due to the strong employment report, the pound fell sharply last Friday to 1.9490. Last Thursday BoE maintained the cash rate unchanged and the market expected that the UK interest rate would hit the peak and sold the Pound. This morning Dec Rightmove house price index rose 13% at the annual which showed that the UK house price continued to rise up and would be likely to lift up the inflation. I believe that BoE still have room for one more rate hike next year Q1. GBP/USD support is at 1.9250 and the resistance is at 1.9550.
JPY Yen weakened last Friday and USD/JPY rose up to 116.50 level. Last Friday Japan Q3 GDP revised down from 0.5% to 0.2% which confused the market about the economic performance for Japan and the rate hike schedule was still uncertain. EUR/JPY rose to 154, and GBP/JPY rose to 227 level again which was bearish to the Yen. The resistance for the USD/JPY is at 117.80, and the support is at 115.00.
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