USD The dollar is still trading within the tight range and the market waits for the employment report. Yesterday the jobless claims fell from 358k to 324k which supported the USD in the short term. According to the CBOT fed fund futures, traders priced in the chance for the rate cut next March fell from 70% to 48% which lift up the dollar. In the past 6 times, after the non-farm payroll released, the USD would raise up since then.
EUR EUR/USD fell to 1.3270 level yesterday. ECB raised the interest rate by 0.25% but the market had already expected the rate hike. At the after policy statement, the central bank pointed out that the current interest rate level was still in the historical low level and revised up the GDP forecast. However, the bank revised down the inflation forecast from 1.9-2.9% to 1.5-2.5% which I believe that next year the Euro interest rate will hit the peak. EUR/CAD rose to 1.53, and EUR/JPY rose to 153 level which supported the Euro. Technically, EUR/USD support is at 1.3280 and 1.3220. The resistance is at 1.3360.
GBP The Pound fell to 1.9610 level yesterday. BoE maintained the cash rate unchanged as the market expected. UK Nov Halifax house price index rose from 8.6% to 9.6% at the annual rate which showed that the UK house price continued to rise up and might bring up the medium term price level. Although some traders believe that the UK interest rate hit the peak, I still maintain my view about one more rata hike next year Q1. GBP/JPY fell to 226.10 and GBP/AUD fell to 2.4880 which was bearish to the Pound. Technically, GBP/USD fell from 1.9850 to 1.9610, and expected the support is at 1.9550.
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