EUR/USD

After directionless trading for most of the week, the market finally showed its 'hand' after wild trading on Friday. The rising trend line looked set to hold for a rebound but such rebound was much weaker than we thought and reached far below mentioned resistance of 1.2133 and 1.2188. EUR/USD reached 1.2024 only, bounced off from 4 hours 55 EMA and dropped steeply to below 1.1923 low.

But anyway, since this rising trend line is now broken, with daily MACD in negative zone too, the rise from 1.1639 has finished at 1.2322 and the current fall is confirmed to be at least another fall of the same degree. In such case, the current fall should be extending towards cluster support of 1.1776 (with 78.6% of 1.1639 to 1.2322 at 1.1785) or further towards 1.1639 low.

Weakness should continue initially next week but above 1.2024 will suggest EUR/USD has turned into consolidation first but recovery should be limited well below 1.2188 resistance and bring decline resumption towards 1.1776. And we'll keep this short term bearish view until a break of 1.2188 resistance or any sign of reversal.

GBP/USD

Cable's fall from 1.7858 was contained by projection target of 61.8% projection of 1.7935 to 1.7635 from 1.7858 at 1.7373 last week and rebounded strongly to 1.7575 on Friday. However, such rebound was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA and below cluster resistance of 1.7593 (38.2% retracement of 1.7935 to 1.7377 at 1.7590) and retreated steeply with other majors on broad based strength in dollar.

The nature of the selloff from 1.7575 suggest that the corrective rise from 1.7375 has finished. Hence as long as cluster resistance of 1.7593 holds, bias will remain on the downside for retest of 1.7375 low next week and break will encourage further fall towards mentioned rising trend line 1.7047 to 1.7130 (now at 1.7250).

From a bigger picture, daily MACD is dragged back to negative zone by the fall from 1.7935, suggesting the decline should go further towards 1.7130 and 1.7047 low. And we'll keep this short term bearish view until a break of 1.7635 support turned resistance or any sign of reversal.

USD/CHF

Similar to EUR/USD, USD/CHF engaged in directionless most of last week but traded wildly on Friday. The retreat on Friday, was much shallower than we though and reached 1.2925 only, above mentioned cluster support of 1.2923/24 (23.6% retracement of 1.2556 to 1.3038 at 1.2924 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2738 to 1.3038 at 1.2923) and rebounded from 4 hours 55 EMA that pushed it above 1.3038 resistance.

Further rally is expected next week for mentioned trend line resistance at 1.3116. At this point, since daily MACD has risen back to positive zone, plus consideration of the bearish view in EUR/USD, the fall from 1.3283 is considered finished at 1.2556 already and hence, further strength is expected to continue next towards 1.3196 and 1.3283 high on break of the trend line resistance.

Below 1.2925 will indicate the rise form 1.2556 has turned into consolidation first but downside should be contained well above 1.2738 support and bring rally resumption. And we'll keep this short term bullish view until a break of 1.2738 support or any sign of reversal.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY stepped down last week as correction from 119.37 continued. Steep fall on Friday has brought USD/JPY to as low as 116.88 before rebounding strongly. Such rebound suggests the corrective fall from 119.37 has finished with 3 waves down, meeting 100% projection target and supported above 116.68 support and 55 days EMA.

Hence, we'll assume bias on the upside initially next week for retest of 118.93 resistance and break will strongly suggest the up trend from 113.41 has resumed for 78.6% retracement of 121.38 to 113.41 at 119.67 or further towards 121.38 high for retest.

Meanwhile, below 117.44 minor support will suggest further consolidative trading will instead follow for another test of 116.68 support. At this point, we'd expect expect any further fall to be contained by 116.68 support and bring rally resumption. But a firm break below 116.68 will open up the possibility that the whole rebound from 113.74 has completed and risk further decline towards 61.8% retracement of 113.74 to 119.37 at 115.89.