USD USD weakened again yesterday. EUR/USD rose to 1.3368 and GBP/USD rose to 1.9847. Yesterday US did not have any important economic data released and the USD traded within a tight range. At this moment the market sentiment is still bearish to the dollar and investors should follow the trend rather than buying the dollar at the low. Investors should aware of today's ISM service index which might continue to show the weakness of the US economy. According to the CBOT fed fund futures, traders priced in 68% chance for the rate cut at March 2007. However, if the expectation drops from the high, the dollar might be lift up in the short term.
EUR EUR/USD maintained the strength and rose to 1.3368 yesterday. The market expected that ECB would be likely to raise rate again this Thursday which supported the Euro. Recently the Euro cross rates are traded at the high level. EUR/CAD rose to 1.5220, EUR/JPY rose to 153.80, and EUR/AUD also rose to 1.69 level which was bullish to the Euro. However, if in the short term those pairs cannot breach the recent high and retrace back down, Euro will loses the support. Technically, EUR/USD filled the gap and formed the short term support at 1.3280. The resistance is at 1.3480.
GBP The Pound strengthened yesterday and rose to 1.9847. Recently the UK house price continues to rise and the 2 rate hike this year cannot pressure the property market. The market believes that the medium term inflation will have an upside risk and BoE would be likely to raise rate again next year Q1. This Thursday BoE will announce the rate decision and I believe that the central bank will put the interest rate on hold. GBP/CHF rose to 2.36, GBP/CAD rose to 2.26, and GBP/JPY rose to 228.60 which supported the Pound. Technically, GBP/USD filled the gap and formed the short term support at 1.9730. The resistance is at 1.9850.
NZD NZD/USD rose to 0.6905 yesterday due to the weak USD. The carry trade action also supported the Kiwi and weakened the Yen. However, in the long term, I believe that the NZD interest rate has already hit the peak and the economy is slowing also. EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD also trade in the medium uptrend which will pressure the Kiwi eventually. Technically, NZD/USD forms the support at 0.6885 and the resistance is at 0.7000.
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