USD The dollar rebounded from the recent low yesterday. EUR/USD fell slightly to 1.2950 and GBP/USD fell from 1.9170 to 1.9150 level. Yesterday was the Thanksgiving day and the currency market was quiet. Recent USD weakness was due to the moderate inflation and economic data. The Core CPI fell from 2.9% to 2.7%, and the Housing starts and Building permits fell 14.6% and 6.3% respectively. The market believed that the Fed would be likely to cut rate next year Q1 and weakened the dollar. I believe that the USD at this moment will still trade within the summer range.
EUR EUR/USD rose to 1.2975 yesterday due to the strong IFO data. German Nov IFO index rose from 105.3 to 106.8, the highest in 15 years. The data showed that the German economy was still strong. However, the Q3 GDP fell from 0.9% to 0.6% which limited the upside for the Euro. Recently some investors believed that Euro interest rate would lift up to 4% next year. However, in my opinion, according to the flattening European government bond yield curve, the market still believed that the interest rate level can enough to contain the long term inflation expectation. Euro is neutral in the cross rate market. EUR/JPY fell to 105.50, and EUR/CHF fell to 1.5850. However, the EUR/CAD rose to 1.4790, and EUR/AUD rose to 1.6730. Technically, EUR/USD retested the 1.2975 critical resistance and the support is at 1.2920.
JPY Yen strengthened yesterday. USD/JPY rose to 116.20 level. The Yen movement was affected by the cross rate market rather than the fundamental side. EUR/JPY fell to 150.50, AUD/JPY fell from 91 to 90, and NZD/JPY fell from 79.22 to 77.60 which supported the Yen. The short term resistance is at 116.50 and the support is at 115.50.
NZD NZD/USD fell below 0.6700 level due to the soft trade balance data. NZ Oct Trade deficit widened from 0.587 billion to 1.167 billion. The data showed that earlier the Kiwi rose 13.17% which began to have a negative impact on the export. EUR/NZD rose to 2.9350 and the GBP/NZD rose to 2.8620 which might pressure the Kiwi. Technically, NZD/USD resistance is at 0.6720 and support is at 0.6675 in the short term.
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