USD USD weakened yesterday but did not change much. EUR/USD rose to 1.2830 and the GBP/USD rose to 1.8970 level. Oct leading indicator rose 0.2%, matched the market expectation but still below Sept's 0.4%. Overall Yen and CAD are the weakest currencies recently. At the G20 meeting the members did not discuss about the Yen and the moderate comment on inflation outlook from BoJ governor Fukui weakened the Yen. The market believes that the CAD interest rate hit the peak and Sept there was net capital outflow from Canada. The CAD is bearish from the interest rate outlook and the soft economic growth. The performances for the European currencies were better especially the Euro. At the G20 meeting, the European officials are hawkish on the inflation and interest rate which supported the Euro as well.
EUR EUR/USD strengthened slightly yesterday but still traded in tight range. Yesterday EU did not have importance economic data released. At the G20 meeting, ECB president's speech was still hawkish on the inflation and interest rate outlook. he said that the current interest rate level was still in the historical low which the market believed that ECB would be likely to continue to raise rate next year and supported the Euro. EUR/CAD rose to 1.47, EUR/JPY rose to 151.60, and EUR/AUD rose to 1.67 which limited the downside for the Euro. Technically, EUR/USD support is at 1.2760 and the resistance is at 1.2920.
GBP The Cable strengthened yesterday. Yesterday morning released the Rightmove house price index which rose 12.4% at the annual rate. Later on Oct M4 money supply growth rose 14%. Although the growth rate was below Sept's 14.5%, the money supply was still at the high level. I believe that the UK house price will continue to rise and so as the money supply growth which the medium term inflation will have upside risk and BoE would be likely to raise rate again next year Q1. Investors should aware of today's Q3 GDP final which might not have any changes and will continue to support the Cable.
YEN Yen weakened across the board yesterday. USD/JPY rose back to 118 level. The BoJ governor Fukui said that Japan did not face an immediate inflation threat. Besides, at the G20 meeting the European officials did not talk about the Yen which disappointed the market. EUR/JPY rose to record high again to 151.60 and GBP/JPY rose to 224 level which was bearish to the Yen. Investors should aware of today's BoJ minutes for the previous policy meeting which might affect the Yen today. The resistance is at 118.50 and the support is at 116.60.
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