U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXU6) The DX opened higher at our Pivot level of 85.35, as most other major foreign currencies trade lower ahead of the U.S. economic data. A lower than expected Q2 GDP of 2.6% did not hold the DX from rising to a morning Hi at our secondary Resistance level of 85.62. Prices drifted to our initial Resistance level of 85.50 as we approach the afternoon session. Prices continued to drift lower towards the close and ended the day at 85.42, up 10 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' as momentum indicators remain 'firm' after posting another higher Hi and Close. We have an active 'data reporting' day Friday that could lead to volatility. Longs should tighten 'stops' or purchase a 'put' to reduce exposure. A lower open may find Support at 85.24 and 85.06, while an open above 85.43 should find Resistance at 85.61 and 85.80.
CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDU6) The CD opened lower at .9021 and slid to a morning LO of .9010, before bouncing to a morning Hi of .9040 as higher energy/metals prices support the move. The CD retraced to .9026 as we enter the afternoon session. As the DX slid lower towards the close, the CD managed to bounce to .9033, up 3 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' on an 'inside-day' as momentum indicators remain 'firm'. The lower close in the energy market took the wind out of the CD, but metals were supportive. Weaker 'factory prices' should keep the BoC on hold until Q1 of 07, which could dampen higher prices. A higher open should find Resistance at .9045 and .9058, while an open below .9028 may find Support at .9015 and .8998.
BRITISH POUND (BPU6) The BP opened lower at 1.8778 as traders take further profit/risk off the table after 'dovish' comments on a propose rate hike from BoE policymaker Blanchflower. Prices hit a morning Hi of 1.8800, before retracing to a morning Lo of 1.8738 and bouncing to 1.8765 as we enter the afternoon session. The BP was able to move higher into the close to end the session at 1.8780, down 127 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' on the 'gap-lower', large down range day. Momentum indicators are 'weak', suggesting lower prices, with Target Support at the 9/11 low of 1.8625. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.8807 and 1.8835, while an open below 1.8773 may find Support at 1.8745 and 1.8711.
EURO-CURRENCY (ECU6) The EC opened 'flat' at 1.2763 and rose to a morning Hi at 1.2770, before retracing as the DX gathered strength to a morning Lo of 1.2732. Prices rebounded to 1.2752 as we enter the closing half of trading. The EC was able to add another 14 tics towards the close to end the day, up 3 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative', as the EC posts a lower (H&L) as momentum indicators remain 'neutral'. If 'good' news and 'rate-hype' fail to rally the EC, what would anything negative do? Has the 50 bp potential increase been totally discounted? A higher open should find Resistance at 1.2780 and 1.2794, while an open below 1.2756 may find Support at 1.2742 and 1.2718.
JAPANESE YEN (JYU6) The JY opened lower at our initial Support level of .8590 and rose to a morning Hi of .8600, before retracing to a morning Lo at our secondary Support level of .8570. As we begin the afternoon session, the JY is trading at .8572. The JY was able to and another 8 tics during the afternoon to end the session at .8580, down 30 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' with weak momentum indicators, suggesting lower prices, possibly testing the Target Support of .8560 on 9/18. Shorts should tighten 'stops' or purchase a 'call' to reduce exposure from any 'short-covering' rally. A lower open may find Support at .8567 and .8553, while an open above .8583 should find Resistance at .8597 and .8613.
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