U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXU6) The DX opened lower at 84.81, Monday's close 84.85, and moved higher as traders seeking a 'safe-haven' rotated into the DX. Stronger economic data on Factory Orders along with an independent est. of 368,000 new jobs created in June sent the DX to a morning Hi at our Weekly Pivot level of 85.42, before sliding to 85.27 as we enter the afternoon session. Prices traded 'sideways' through to the close and ended the session at 85.25, up 45 tics. The 'outside-day', up close, remains below the 9-day MA and continues the s/t 'negative' trend. The close above the Pivot should lead to a 'firm' open, but with the ECB policy meeting, any 'bullish' commentary could weigh on the DX. A higher open should find Resistance at 85.58 and 85.92, while an open below 85.09 may find Support at 84.75 and 84.26.
CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDU6) The CD opened higher at .9060, hit a morning Hi of .9061 and retraced under DX pressure to a morning Lo of .8996, before rebounding to .9015 as stronger energy/metal prices supported the move higher heading into the afternoon session. Prices traded on either side of our initial Support level before ending the day at .9016, down 23 tics. Higher energy/metal prices should continue to support at these levels, but a stronger DX could weigh on the CD until the BoC indicates another 'rate incease' is coming, sooner rather than later. A lower open may find Support at .8988 and .8959, while an open above .9024 may find Resistance at .9053 and .9024.
BRITISH POUND (BPU6) The BP opened higher at our Pivot level of 1.8450, hit a morning Hi of 1.8452 and followed most major foreign currencies lower as the DX attracted more followers. The BP retraced to a morning LO at our secondary Support level of 1.8355 and bounced to 1.8374 as we begin afternoon trading. The BP managed to gain a few more tics before ending the day at 1.8384, down 50 tics.
Weaker economic data weighed on prices along with pressure of rate increases by the ECB and U.S. Fed. The s/t trend remains 'positive', but another lower (H&L) sets a negative tone as momentum indicators weaken. A lower open may find Support at 1.8342 and 1.8300, while an open above 1.8397 should find Resistance at 1.8439 and 1.8494.
EURO-CURRENCY (ECU6) The EC opened lower at 1.2832 and bounced to a morning Hi at our initial Support level of 1.2835, before retracing to a morning LO of 1.2771. Prices bounced to 1.2790 as we begin the afternoon session. The EC was able to gain a few tics as the DX drifted lower into the close, helping the EC close the day at 1.2800, down 62 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' ahead of a ECB news conference Thursday, but what ECB President Trichet has to say about raising rates will dictate the move against the DX. A lower open may find Support at 1.2769 and 1.2738, while an open above 1.2802 should find Resistance at 1.2833 and 1.2866.
JAPANESE YEN (JYU6) The JY opened lower at our initial Support level of .8790, hit a morning Hi of .8793 and sold-off as traders took risk off the table as N. Korean missiles threatened security in the region. Prices retraced to a morning Lo of .8727, before bouncing to .8738 as we move into the afternoon session. With 'buyers' on the sidelines, the JY drifted to a quiet, but unsettling close of .8736, down 73 tics. The 'gap-lower' open and down close weighed on momentum indicators as traders and investors sought 'safe-haven' markets.The s/t trend is 'negative' and momentum indicators are looking at lower prices, possibly at the Target Lo of .8674 on 6/29. A lower open may find Support at .8711 and .8686, while an open above .8752 should find Resistance at .8777 and .8818.
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