EURUSD: Range Trading Structure Continues To Dominate.
EURUSD: As depicted in the chart EUR continues to maintain its range structure within its established symmetrical triangle declining for a second day Thursday to close at 1.2673.The immediate risk remains a break out of the 4 Hourly triangle to create directional moves while the bigger risk lies in the break below its YTD low at 1.2330 and its corrective swing high at 1.3298.If the latter level is seen first, corrective upside could resume higher towards the 1.3666 level, its Dec’04 high. On the other hand, decisive break below the 1.2330 level will activate the resumption of its medium decline started at the 1.6038 level towards the 1.2134 level, its .50 Ret (its 0.8231-1.6038 high, monthly chart) followed by the 1.1827 level, its Mar’06 low and ultimately its Nov’05 low at 1.1640.Daily studies signals remain unclear supporting the present range trading environment. If any of these scenarios fail to play out, then we could experience further range trading between the 1.2330 and 1.3298 levels with meaningful directional moves being determined by those levels. On the whole, broader outlook remains lower for an attack on and possible break of its medium term low at 1.2330.
SupportComments
1.2728Oct 22’08 low
1.2484 Oct’06 low
1.2330/24 Oct 28’08 low/Jan/April’06 highs
1.1827Mar’06 low
ResistanceComments
1.2866Jan’07 low
1.3058/05Oct 23’06 high/.618 Ret (0.8231-1.6038 rally, monthly chart)
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