EURUSD: Hesitation At The 0.3769/85 Area To Highlight Risk Towards The 1.3259 Low.
EURUSD- Having failed twice to push through and hold above the 1.3769/85 zone, its Oct 09 & 14’08 highs, EUR now runs the risk of declining back towards its YTD low at 1.3259 printed on Oct 10’08.Penetrating and negating this level will set off the pair’s medium term weakness started at the 1.6038 level towards its .382 Fib Ret (0.8231-1.6038 rally, monthly chart) at 1.3054 and then its Jan’07 low at 1.2866.This view remains consistent with its broader bias which is evidently to the downside. If however, a return back above the 1.3769/85 zone occurs, our downside case will be put on hold and a continuation of its corrective recovery off the 1.3259 could be seen towards the 1.3852/82 zone, its Sept 11’08 low/July’07 high where a cap is expected to turn it back down again. On the whole, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside with the 1.3259 level being targeted.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term –Mixed Short Term –Bearish Medium Term –Bearish
Performance in %: Past Week:-0.21%
Past Month: -5.03%
Past Quarter: -10.44%
Year To Date:-8.09%
Weekly Range:
High -1.3769 Low -1.3346
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