The buck traded lower in London as higher than expected inflation and better than anticipated economic sentiment out of the Euro-zone sent EUR higher. German producer prices jumped 2.0% in July, taking the annual rate to a whooping 8.9% from 6.7% -- the fastest run-rate since late 1981.

Meanwhile the August German ZEW economic sentiment index printed -55.7 after a -63.7 result the prior month while the Euro-zone figure came in at -55.5 from -63.9 previously. The data helped EURUSD close near 1.4700 after slipping towards 1.4630/35 shortly after the start of London trading.

Oil helped limit the losses for the buck, as it fell more than $1 towards a low of $111.65/bbl on tapering concerns about Tropical Storm Fay. This move helped to boost USDCAD modestly. The pair opened near 1.0635 and was sitting near 1.0650 as the session came to a close. We would expect oil to make a try towards the next key support level at $110.35/bbl (the 200-day SMA) as concerns about Fay ease further.

US producer prices and housing starts data will be the focus in the early NY session. The market is looking for headline PPI to print 0.6% and for the core to come in at 0.2%. Given the upside surprise to the consumer prices report last week, however, the risk is that we get a hotter than expected read. Housing starts should pullback towards the consensus estimate of 960K as the outsized 1066K print last month was distorted by a change in New York City's building code.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) Prior Estimate

8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US Producer Price Index (MoM) JUL 1.80% 0.60%
8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JUL 0.20% 0.20%
8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US Producer Price Index (YoY) JUL 9.20% 9.40%
8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) JUL 3.00% 3.20%
8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US Housing Starts JUL 1066K 960K
8/19/2008 12:30 GMT US Building Permits JUL 1091K 970K
8/19/2008 14:00 GMT US Fed's Fisher Speaks in Aspen on U.S. Economy
8/19/2008 21:00 GMT US ABC Consumer Confidence 17-Aug -50 -48