To start the week the US Dollar seemed to be a victim of the weather, as fears of Tropical Storm Fay intensifying and hitting the oil rig cluttered Gulf of Mexico sent the Greenback tumbling. EUR/USD was at its lows early near 146.71 and moved upward to top out near
147.60 as the Dollar proved that oil and commodities may in fact be its equivalent of kryptonite. Crude oil which was trading just above $111.00 a barrel on Friday flew into the $114.00 range based on the impeding hurricane fears. With a very light list of economic data and earnings this week in the US, look for any big moves in Equities, Gold, or 'Black Gold' to have some sort of repercussions on the Dollars path. With the pair not able to make a move above the pivotal 150.00 level last week, as well as some key Euro-Zone data ahead this week, look for the Euro bears to show their teeth.
USD/JPY made some dynamic moves in thin holiday markets as traders focused on the upcoming BoJ policy statement on Tuesday. The pair started the session at its highs of 110.56 and fell from there to lows of 109.95 until stabilizing nearer to 110.10. EUR/JPY saw early lows of 161.78 but took off to occupy the 162.60 region before the session was through.
AUD/USD saw some vindication after last week as it looked strong all session with the pop in oil and commodity prices. The pair climbed to highs near .8730, squeezing out short positions as the NZD/USD followed the Aussie leader.
As Tropical Storm Fay gets closer to the US shoreline it would seem more and more apparent that the path it is on will not put the Gulf's oil platforms in any sort of peril. That being said, I am not a meteorologist, but if I'm correct, expect oil to retract, and if oil happens to get below $110.00 a barrel, expect hurricane like conditions in the FX market….
8/18/2008
6:30
FR
Bank of France Bus. Sentiment
JUL
95
94
8/18/2008
7:15
SZ
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY)
JUN
7.40%
3.30%
8/18/2008
9:00
GE
German DIW Economic Institute Publishes New Forecast
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