Now that all the celebrations over the long overdue US equity 1 day rally are over, and all the confetti and empty bottles are being swept up, there is one fact to take into consideration….the Dollar lost ground across the board in Asia. Although it would seem that the dark storm cloud over the financial stocks has been long at last lifted, don't wander too far from home without your umbrella, because the coming earnings from two top tier US banks later today and tomorrow may dramatically change the climate. This will be the real test for the US financials, and if the news is acceptable, the psychological factor may be enough to help sustain the 'rally', otherwise we may only have a short term correction on our hands.
With news that sovereign wealth funds are cutting their US Dollar exposure, EUR/USD was busy all session going higher, hitting highs near 1.5866 after starting the session close to 1.5810. The Bernanke comments about dollar intervention earlier in NY were all but forgotten. EUR/JPY lost ground all the way to 166.02, but made it back to earlier session highs of 166.42 by the session end. USD/JPY tumbled from highs near 105.28 to lows of 104.75 to end the action about 15 pips from the low. Along with the dollar moves, Japanese oil importers helped to move the pair along its path.
USD/CHF and USD/CAD both came off as well, although the ranges were small, in the case of the Loonie (Canadian Dollar), only 20 pips. GBP/USD churned higher as it touched 2.0025 on the top side after earlier being down near the 1.9972 neighborhood.
The key tomorrow will be the results of the earnings data, as well as the direction of Crude Oil. Expect good things for the Dollar if the earnings are not terrible and oil doesn't gain two or more dollars per barrel……..London's data schedule is pretty much empty.
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