The pair has set a local bottom at 1.5301 completing theslide from 1.5844. Technical indicators are neutral. Trading takes place above 50- day SMA, currently projected at 1.5609.
Yesterday'sintraday minor consolidation remained limited above 1.5614 and later on the pair broke through the 1.5686 resistance, reaching high at 1.5767. We still expect a reversal around current levels and a downtrend to emerge for another test of the 1.5283-1.5301 support zone. Crucial for our idea is 1.5844, as if the pair climbs above it, it will be clear, that the major, general uptrend has been renewed, as we stated in our monthly forecast in the beginning of June. Intraday wait for a bearish pattern to show, that the expected move is on the run. Today's strategy: Sell at current levels with a stop above 1.5781, first target is 1.5634, the second one is TBD later.
27 June 2008 Current level - 106.72 The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 104.74. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
As expected the pair broke through 107.67, reaching low at 106.62. Further drowning is expected, towards 106.38, where a reversal of the current downtrend should take place for climbing back again towards 108.44. Unfortunately it is too risky to be on the long side, even on the mid frames, 'cause there is a possibility, that a major sell-off has already began. Be patient and wait for more clear patterns to evolve. Today's strategy: Stand aside.
The downtrend from the 2.0397 local top has reached low at 1.9374. Technical indicators are reversed on the 4 h. chart and the trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9680 and 1.9992.
Major break took place yesterday at 1.9851 and that was a clear sign, that the 1.9338-1.9851 range has already ended. This will automatically set present target at 2.0274 in the days to come. Keep in mind, that 1.9851 was not a typical break-out level, so there is no obligation for the upmove to advance straight towards the target and current consolidation is expected to retest 1.9791 and even 1.9767 before renewing of the general upmove. Today's strategy : Stand aside.
resistance
support
intraday
intraweek
1.9896
2.0225
1.9963
2.0397
intraday
intraweek
1.9791
1.9477
1.9767
1.9192
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