The pair has set a local bottom at 1.5363 completing the fall from 1.5818. Technical indicators are rising. The 50- day SMA is currently projected at 1.5663.
Unfortunately our target at 1.5916 was not reached as the pair reversed at 1.5844, entering a strong downward movement, that has touched low at 1.5558. Further losses are expected, down to 1.5527 where the pair should reverse direction for 1.58 once again. Crucial for our expectations is 1.5454, as if we see a break below that level it will become evident, that recent sell from 1.5844 is not a corrective one. Today's strategy: Try tiny longs at 1.5527 with a stop below 1.5454 and target at 1.5746.
10 June 2008 Current level - 106.64 The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 102.36. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
As our short-term target at 106.68 has been finally reached, we will wait for a clear reversal on the lower time-frames, that will give earlier signs for already situated top on the bigger picture. 104.75 has become crucial, as a break below will mark an end of the last rise from 102.72 and will confirm, that a strong downtrend is on the run. Still, from an intraday point of view, the pair is in an uptrend, supported at 106.44 and aiming at 107.18. Today' strategy: Stand aside.
The downtrend from the 2.0397 local top has reached a low at 1.9374. Technical indicators are reversed on the 4 h. chart and the trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9819 and 2.0044.
At 1.9802, 50 pips below the major resistance at 1.9851, the pair lost ground and reversed, touching low at 1.9599. We stick to the idea, that this is only a corrective structure and is setting the stage for the next leg upwards, to 2.0225. Crucial for our expectations is 1.9538, as if we see a break below that level, the move will target 1.9367 major support again. Today's strategy : Stand aside.
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