The pair has set a local bottom at 1.5363 completing the fall from 1.5818. Technical indicators are neutral. The 50- day SMA is currently projected at 1.5663.
After European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised the market with an interest rate hike possibility next month, EUR/USD took off the recent lows at 1.5363 and sharply advanced to 1.5604. In our opinion this marks a beginning of a short-term uptrend towards 1.6017 and beyond, as we have stated in our Midterm Forex Outlook.Intraday next resistance lies at 1.5663 and support can be found above 1.5534. Today's strategy: Stand aside.
06 June 2008 Current level - 106.03 The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 102.36. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
As expected the pair bottomed at 104.56, renewing the uptrend towards 106.68. Be careful around the above mentioned level, as it can provoke a reversal based on the resistance coming from the higher frames. Intraday expect one more test of the 105.54 support, before bouncing higher to 106.68. Today' strategy: Buy on a dip to 105.54 with stop below 105.12 and target at 106.68.
The downtrend from the 2.0397 local top has reached a low at 1.9374. Technical indicators are reversed on the 4 h. chart and the trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.9819 and 2.0044.
As expected the pair bottomed at 1.9463 and advanced well to 1.9604. Unfortunately the impulse was not strong enough to break beyond 1.9637, that would definitely mark, that an uptrend has emerged for 2.0225. For now the downtrend from 1.9851 shall be considered as present and intact, and only above 1.9637 and mostly above 1.9741 our expectation for an advance towards 2.0225 will be confirmed. Today's strategy : Buy on a break above 1.9604 with short-term target at 1.9851 and risk below 1.9463 or intraday's low.
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