The pair has built a local bottom at 1.5283 and has advanced well to 1.5571. Technical indicators are reversing and divergent. The 50- day SMA is currently projected at 1.5631.
The slide from 1.5571 has set a local bottom at 1.5395, few pips above the 1.5361 support. The advance from that level is targeting the dynamic resistance , projected at 1.5553. On the 4 h. chart a clear H&S reversed formation can be identified, but keep in mind that it will be activated above 1.5571. We expect a brief intrady consolidation below 1.5553, followed by a break above that level and a rise towards 1.5642. Today's strategy: Buy on dips to 1.5507 with a stop below 1.5453, or buy a break above 1.5567 with targets in both cases 1.5642 and 1.5851 later on.
15 May2008 Current level - 104.85 The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 102.36. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
We still expect a downtrend to emerge, for a break below the 99.86 dynamic support, en route to 95.75. Nevertheless the uptrend on the lower time-frames is still intact, so only below 100.82 will be confirmed, that the outlook is totally bearish for 95.75. So in our opinion a new high above the recent 105.69 is to be achieved and probably a test of the 106.68 resistance, before reversing and beginning of a downtrend. Of course after breaking above 105.69, the crucial support on the higher frames, that is projected now at 100.82 will be replaced by 102.63. Today' strategy: Stand aside.
The pair has reversed at 1.9337 and the technical indicators are rising and convergent. Trading is situated between the 50-day MA, projected at 1.9741 and the 200-day SMA, at 1.9925.
New low was reached yesterday at 1.9374, few pips above the important 1.9367 support. We still think, that last week's activity is a broad test of the 1.9338-67 support and having in mind the high (weekly) frame, that it is derived from, it will take more time to be worked out. Be patient and wait for a break either below 1.9338 or above 1.9633 to determine the general direction of next month's trades. Today's strategy : Stay on yesterday' longs with a tight stop at 1.9428.
resistance
support
intraday
intraweek
1.9633
1.9961
1.9963
2.0192
intraday
intraweek
1.9367
1.9338
1.9338
1.9196
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