The pair has built a local bottom at 1.5283 and has advanced well to 1.5571. Technical indicators are reversing and divergent. The 50- day SMA is currently projected at 1.5631.
The corrective construction from 1.5361 has resulted in renewing the downtrend, reaching low at 1.5283. Unfortunately there is no a reliable support all the way down to 1.50 , so the expected reversal will be confirmed only above 1.5601 resistance. Yesterday's drowning reached lower than expected levels, far below the intraday support at 1.5467. Still there is no clear direction, as only below 1.5361 the upward potential willl be renounced. We are rather neutral untill we see a break below 1.5361 or above 1.5571. Today's strategy : Stand aside.
resistance
support
intraday
intraweek
1.5571
1.5807
1.5712
1.60-sentiment
intraday
intraweek
1.5361
1.50
1.5283
1.4467
USD/JPY
Daily Analysis
14 May2008 Current level - 105.01 The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 102.36. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
We still expect a downtrend to emerge, for a break below the 99.86 dynamic support, en route to 95.75. Nevertheless the uptrend on the lower time-frames is still intact, so only below 100.82 will be confirmed, that the outlook is totally bearish for 95.75. Our long trades since 102.63 were cashed in at 104.24, but unfortunately the short attempts from that level were stopped out at 104.45, and the advance above the last mentioned level is a sign, that the whole rise from 102.63 is not a corrective one, as it is a part of the overall positive movement since 95.75 short-term bottom. So in our opinion a new high above the recent 105.69 is to be achieved and probably a test of the 106.68 resistance, before reversing and beginning of a downtrend. Of course after breaking above 105.69, the crucial support on the higher frames, that is projected now at 100.82 will be replaced by 102.63.
resistance
support
intraday
intraweek
105.36
106.31
105.68
108.31
intraday
intraweek
103.21
100.82
102.68
95.75
GBP/USD
Daily Analysis
14 May2008 Current level- 1.9412
The pair has reversed at 1.9337 and the technical indicators are rising and convergent. Trading is situated between the 50-day MA, projected at 1.9741 and the 200-day SMA, at 1.9925.
New low was reahed today at 1.9392, few pips above the important 1.9367 support. We still think, that last week's activity is a broad test of the 1.9338-67 support and having in mind the high (weekly) frame, that it is derived from, it will take more time to be worked out. Be patient and wait for a break either below 1.9338 or above 1.9633 to determine the general direction of next month's trades. Today's strategy : Establish long position with a risk limit below 1.9338 and target to be determined later.
resistance
support
intraday
intraweek
1.9633
1.9961
1.9963
2.0192
intraday
intraweek
1.9689
1.9338
1.9338
1.9196
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