U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXM6) The DX opened lower at our Pivot level of 89.35 and rose to a morning Hi of 89.44, before retracing to a morning Lo of 89.12 after comments from Iran, that they have successfully they have enriched uranium, which can be used to in nuclear weapons. Comments from the ECB about a possible rate hike in June helped pressure the DX. Prices bounced to our initial Support level of 89.27 as we enter the afternoon session. The DX continued to fall to our secondary Support level of 89.06, before bouncing to a close of 89.15, down 28 tics. The s/t trend is still a tic above the 9-day MA as weaker momentum indicators and concerns over Iran discount the possibility of further rate increases. A lower open may find Support at 88.99 and 88.84, while an open above 89.22 should find Resistance at 89.37 and 89.60.
CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDM6) The CD opened higher at our initial Resistance level of .8746, slid to our Pivot level of .8730 and rose to a morning Hi at our secondary Resistance level of .8761 on further DX weakness and higher energy prices. As buyers 'backed-off' as energy prices retraced, the CD slid to .8748 as we begin the afternoon session. As the DX continued lower the CD finished the day close to the hi at .8753, up 29 tics. The recent run up to the Target Hi of .8760 on 4/7, with s/t momentum indicators 'topping', should send a signal for 'longs' to tighten 'stops' or purchase a 'put' ahead of the EIA data. Further DX weakness could send a signal for 'funds' to take a little profit/risk off the top ahead of a Holiday weekend. A higher open should find Resistance at .8766 and .8779, while an open below .8748 may find Support at .8735 and .8717.
BRITISH POUND (BPM6) The BP opened higher at 1.7447 and slid to a morning Lo of 1.7440, before climbing to a morning Hi of 1.7504 on DX weakness. Prices slid to 1.7481 as we begin the afternoon session. The BP rebounded to 1.7500 on the continued DX weakness into the close and ended the session at 1.7498, up 66 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' as momentum indicators improve after the 3-day reversal. We shall see if traders continue to view the economic conditions as 'promising' or as a 'parking place' ahead of the Holiday weekend. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.7524 and 1.7550, while an open below 1.7482 may find Support at 1.7456 and 1.7414.
EURO-CURRENCY (ECM6) The EC opened higher at our Pivot level of 1.2156 and dipped to a morning Lo of 1.2149, before comments about a possible rate hike in June, helped spur a 'short-covering' rally to a morning HI of 1.2191. As we start the afternoon session, prices have slid to 1.2180, as traders watch the DX for direction. With the DX heading lower into the close, the EC rose to a daily Hi of 1.2192, before ending the day at 1.2188, up 37 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' as traders continue to assess the prospects of a June rate increase after the latest ZEW report. Momentum indicators are 'neutral' as traders prepare for the Holiday weekend with increased tensions in the air. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.2204 and 1.2219, while an open below 1.2176 may find Support at 1.2161 and 1.2133
JAPANESE YEN (JYM6) The JY opened lower at .8497 and slid to a morning Lo at our secondary Support level of .8488 before rebounding to a morning Hi of .8522 and sliding to .8511 as we head into the afternoon session.The BoJ left rates 'unchanged' and stated that the transition from a 'zero rate' lending policy would be gradual, but forthcoming. Despite higher oil prices, traders bid the JY to a daily Hi of .8536, before closing at .8526, up 10 tics.The 'outside-day' up close may signal the start of a reversal, provided we see continued pressure on the DX. The s/t trend remains 'negative' and momentum indicators remain 'weak' as traders continue to look for the economic recovery. A higher open should find Resistance at .8545 and .8565, while an open below .8517 may find Support at .8497 and .8469
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