U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXM6) The DX opened higher at 89.33 after a stronger than expected Payroll Report on Friday. With the labor force continuing to grow with an increase in wages, the Fed may be inclined to revisit the proposed 5.25% increase in June, which helped the DX rise to a mid-day Hi of 89.48, off the morning Lo of 89.22. On a day with little economic data, concerns over Iran and higher oil prices attract most of the attention. Prices rose to a daily Hi of 89.53, before drifting lower into the close of 89.43, up 12 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive', but for how long? Will those countries looking to diversify further into Euros take advantage of lower prices? Will 'sabre rattling' with Iran, shake the confidence of Dollar buyers going forward? We shall see! Momentum indicators are still positive and pressure from higher energy and metal (precious and non-ferrous) prices could add to inflationary 'fears' and higher rates. A higher open should find Resistance at 89.57 and 89.71, while an open below 89.39 may find Support at 89.25 and 89.07.
CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDM6) The CD opened flat at our Pivot of .8738 and rose to a morning Hi of .8750 as higher energy and metal prices support the move. Pressure from a stronger DX sent the CD down to a morning Lo of .8732, before bouncing to .8737 as we enter the afternoon session. Prices trailed lower during the afternoon, despite the surge in metal and energy prices, ending the day at .8724, down14 tic. The inability to close above Friday's Hi of .8760, let alone the Pivot swing number, disappoints a number traders. Too Hi - Too Soon? Stochastics look over-bot and could see a turn lower, suggesting lower prices. A lower open may find Support at .8713 and .8701, while an open above .8731 should find Resistance at .8743 and .8761.
BRITISH POUND (BPM6) The BP opened higher at 1.754 and rose to a morning Hi at our Pivot level of 1.7474, before pressure from a stronger DX sent prices to a morning LO of 1.7417 as we begin afternoon trading. Prices slid to a daily LO of 1.7395, before rebounding to a close of 1.7432, down 16 tics.The s/t trend remains 'negative' with another lower (Hi & Lo) and momentum indicators weakening. A lower open may find Support at 1.7393 and 1.7355, while an open above 1.7434 should find Resistance at 1.7472 and 1.7513.
EURO-CURRENCY (ECM6) The EC opened lower at 1.2157 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.2177, before following most major foreign currencies lower on the DX gain. Prices fell to a morning LO of 1.2140, before bouncing to 1.2143 as we begin the afternoon session. The EC slid to a daily Lo of 1.2130, before bouncing to a close of 1.2151, down 10 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative', with another lower (H&L) along with weaker momentum indicators. Will a stronger than expected ZEW report cause 'shorts' to cover? Traders will 'eye' the DX for direction and listen to Fed officials who could shed light on the possibility of further U.S. rate increases. A lower open may find Support at 1.2128 and 1.2106, while an open above 1.2153 should find Resistance at 1.2175 and 1.2200.
JAPANESE YEN (JYM6) The JY opened lower at .8528 and rose to a morning Hi of .8531, before retracing to a morning Lo at our initial Support level of .8502 and bouncing to .8507 as we begin the afternoon session. Prices creeped higher towards the close, ending the session at .8516, down 16 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative', as momentum indicators continue to weaken, despite the positive rhetoric out of the Bank of Janpan. We may see a dble-btm lo at this level, that could cause 'shorts' to cover, should the DX show weakness or the JY could test the yearly Lo of .8498 on 3/13. A lower open may find Support at .8502 and .8487, while an open above .8516 should find Resistance at .8531 and .8545.
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