U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXM6) The DX opened lower at 89.52 as traders continue to take further risk off the table after comments by Kansas City Fed. Reserve President Tom Hoenig suggested that the Fed may be at a level that may not need a rate increase above the proposed 5.00% level. With presure from further rate increases by the ECB and Reserve Bank of Australia, the DX slid to a morning Lo of 88.31, before bouncing to a morning Hi of 88.60. As we enter the afternoon session, traders may be positioning themselves ahead of Friday's Payroll Report, which may show an increase of 175,000 additions to the workforce. Prices retraced to a daily Lo of 88.26, before bouncing to a close of 88.30, down 22 tics. Closing below the dbl-btm low of 88.45 sets the stage for lower prices, unless traders wait for the Payroll results. A lower open may find Support at 88.16 and 88.03, while an open above 88.40 should find Resistance at 88.53 and 88.77.
CANADIAN DOLLAR (CDM6) The CD opened higher at .8631 as a weaker DX and stronger close Tuesday ahead of today's energy data have attracted more spec's, after rebounding off the dble-btm low on Monday. Prices rose to a morning Hi at our Pivot level of .8642 and retraced to a morning Lo of .8616, before bouncing to .8624 as we begin the afternoon session. As the DX continued lower into the close, the CD managed to add a few ticks to close at .8626, up 9 tics. The close above the 18-day MA with improving momentum indicators is positive, but a close above the Target Resistance level of .8639 would have led to stronger momentum. A lower open may find Support at .8614 and .8602, while an open above .8628 should find Resistance at .8640 and .8654.
BRITISH POUND (BPM6) The BP opened lower at 1.7524 after a weaker than expected U.K. services sector survey saw s/t profit-taking after Tuesday's run-up. Prices rose to a morning Hi of 1.7553 on DX weakness, but prices retraced to a morning LO of 1.7498, before bouncing to 1.7516 as we enter the afternoon session. The BP gained momentum during the afternoon, rising to a daily Hi of 1.7575, before drifting to a close of 1.7567, down 11 tics. Despite a lack of talk of 'rate' increases, the BP is benefitting by the sector rotation out of DX and into most other major foreign currencies. We will see if longs hang onto gains going into Friday's U.S. Payroll report. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.7595 and 1.7624, while an open below 1.7547 may find Support at 1.7518 and 1.7470.
EURO-CURRENCY (ECM6) The EC opened higher at 1.2326 as traders take advantage of the rhetoric from foreign Central Bank officials who propose adding more EC to their reserves at the expense of the DX. With further rate hikes proposed by the ECB and a topping of rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve, we should see higher prices over the near term. Prices rose to a morning Hi at our secondary Resistance level of 1.2362, before falling back to our Pivot level of 1.2308. As we enter the start of afternoon trading, prices bounced to 1.2329. The falling DX sparked more buying of EC during the closing half of trading, sending the price back to our secondary Resistance level of 1.2364, before closing the day at 1.2357, up 35 tics. We will have to see if the 'self-fulling' prophecy of higher prices ( 1.2600? ) continues or collapses under the weight of its own rhetoric. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.2378 and 1.2399, while an open below 1.2343 may find Support at 1.2322 and 1.2287.
JAPANESE YEN (JYM6) The JY opened lower at .8594 as traders discount a stronger Yuan and look at the expanding 'yield-gap' in countries proposing further rate increases, which attract investment capital away from Japan. Prices rose to a morning Hi of .8610, before tumbling to a morning Lo of .8575 and rebounding to our initial Support level of .8589 as we enter the afternoon session.The JY rose to a daily Hi of .8617, before sliding to a close of .8610, up 5 tics. The JY continues to consolidate above the 9-day MA and maintains the 'positive' s/t trend while awaiting better economic news. A higher open should find Resistance at .8626 and .8643, while an open below .8601 may find Support at .8584 and .8559.
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